2025 NCAA Tournament bracket picks: Why CJ Moore has Florida topping Duke for national title

The selection committee for the men’s basketball tournament had a straightforward task this year as they had the best collection of No. 1 seeds in the history of March Madness. The 2025 NCAA Tournament features Auburn, Duke, Houston, and Florida as the top seeds, all boasting adjusted efficiency margins above 35, which is unprecedented in college basketball analytics dating back to 1997.

One of the reasons for the dominance of these top teams is the trend of top mid-major players transferring to high-major programs through the transfer portal. Additionally, this season has seen a historic level of offensive efficiency across the board, with teams scoring at record rates.

Looking back at last year’s tournament, it was evident that true mid-major teams struggled to advance past the second round. The landscape of college basketball has shifted dramatically, with players transferring to larger programs and reshaping the competitive balance.

Analyzing tournament history can provide valuable insights into predicting bracket outcomes. In years with elite teams near the top, statistically speaking, a No. 1 seed usually emerges as the champion. In fact, over the past seven tournaments, a No. 1 seed has claimed the title six times.

While some may view picking the favorites as playing it safe, the level of competition this year suggests that chalk picks may indeed prevail. The matchups in the later rounds of the tournament promise to be epic, making for an exciting conclusion to March Madness.

In the South Region, Michigan faces UC San Diego in a compelling Round of 64 matchup. Michigan’s size advantage could prove pivotal, with 7-footers Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin posing a challenge for UC San Diego. The Tritons’ defensive turnover rate is impressive, but Michigan’s depth and experience may give them the edge.

Louisville, despite a strong conference record, faces a tough test against Creighton. The Cardinals must contain Bluejays’ big man Ryan Kalkbrenner to advance. Yale, a trendy upset pick, may struggle against Michigan in the second round, given the Wolverines’ strength on the glass.

In the West Region, Florida has a challenging path to the Final Four, facing formidable opponents like UConn and Maryland. Memphis, without third-leading scorer Tyrese Hunter, may face difficulties against Colorado State, a team on a ten-game winning streak. Drake, known for upsets, could cause trouble for Texas Tech if they control the tempo.

The East Region features intriguing matchups like Oregon vs. Liberty and VCU vs. BYU. The Sweet 16 clash between Duke and Alabama promises high-level competition, with both teams boasting size and athleticism. Duke’s efficient play and strong performances in a weaker conference may give them an edge in this matchup.

The Midwest Region sees potential showdowns between Houston and Gonzaga in the second round, as well as Illinois vs. Kentucky. Tennessee’s resurgence in the SEC tournament sets up an exciting Elite Eight matchup against Houston, featuring stellar guard play and elite defenses.

As the tournament unfolds, fans can expect thrilling contests and surprise upsets, making this year’s March Madness one for the books. With top teams vying for supremacy and underdogs looking to make their mark, the road to the Final Four is sure to be filled with drama and excitement.

(Photo of Alijah Martin: James Gilbert / Getty Images)