Here’s a two-game teaser to jump on in Week 6
We are almost a third of the way into the NFL regular season. By now, we have a pretty solid grasp of what teams are and aren’t, which could help to formulate a Week 6 teaser.
As a reminder, here are some general guidelines to follow if you are wagering on NFL teasers to keep risk in check.
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Stick to six-point teasers (you need to win more consistently to offset the higher price).
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Keep it to a two-team teaser (the more pieces you add, the greater the risk).
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Target lower-totaled games (the more points expected, the more variance involved).
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Tease through the key numbers of three and seven (this approach is at the heart of all proven winning strategies).
Current Week 4 teaser-leg options
Bucs -2.5 at Steelers, 44
Saints +8 vs. Bengals, 43
Jaguars +8 at Colts, 42
Patriots +8.5 at Browns, 43
Seahawks +8.5 vs. Cardinals, 50.5
Chiefs +8.5 vs. Bills, 54
Teaser legs to avoid
With a few options on the board, I’m immediately eliminating the three that look like a “slam dunk.” Those three are backing both Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers to cover less than a field goal and Patrick Mahomes catching over a touchdown at home. Don’t all three look highly enticing?
Brady’s off-field issues could perhaps be affecting him. He threw for just one passing touchdown and was shut out by the Falcons in the fourth quarter. The Packers produced a lone safety for two points in the entire second half against the Giants in a surprise outright loss as 8-point favorites, after being up 17-3 at one point in the game. Mahomes could certainly bring more magic but with the highest point total of the week at 54, teasing the Chiefs at home against Josh Allen and the Bills comes with high volatility.
NFL Week 6 teaser bet: Saints +8 and Jaguars +8
The Cincinnati Bengals are 5-0 to the UNDER this season. With points at a premium, I’m immediately considering the Saints at home as an option. The New Orleans defense has been pretty stout, particularly down in the red zone, allowing only 33% of red zone trips to be converted into touchdowns (second best in the league). Burrow and the Bengals are sixth in red zone attempts and could find some difficulty converting those trips into points.
The Indianapolis Colts are now 0-7 straight up and against the spread vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars since 2015. Sure, the Jags have lost back-to-back games, including a 13-6 upset loss to the Texans last week, but Colts QB Matt Ryan has thrown seven interceptions this season — including three combined in the last two games after throwing three interceptions to the Jags in Week 2. Overall, Ryan has been sacked 21 times through five weeks, which is tied for most in the league. Bad versus bad equals an 8-point teaser cover from Jags.
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