The US economy continues to signal an impending recession. While a recession is not inevitable until it occurs, the current economic indicators suggest that avoiding one would be a remarkable feat. The situation does not involve a systemic banking sector failure like in 2008, nor a massive bubble burst as in the 2000-2001 dot-com crash. However, the rapid succession of rate hikes, unprecedented in speed, coupled with global economic trends, add complexity to the forecast.
Despite this, the Biden administration remains hopeful, banking on the resilience of business and consumer balance sheets and the potential for inflation to subside due to Federal Reserve interventions. Nevertheless, the nature of recessions makes them unpredictable and potentially more severe than anticipated.
