Deal Makers Restaff for the Trump Era

Centerview Partners, a leading independent investment bank in the financial world, has traditionally been associated with the Democratic party. Notable figures such as Blair Effron, a prominent Democratic fundraiser, and Bob Rubin, the former Treasury secretary, have been part of the firm. Rahm Emanuel, former chief of staff to Obama, also worked at Centerview Partners.

Recently, Centerview made a move to diversify by hiring Reince Priebus, the former White House chief of staff under Trump, as a senior adviser. This strategic hire is seen as an effort to better understand and engage with Republican perspectives in the current political landscape.

This shift is reflective of a broader trend in the industry, where firms are actively seeking individuals with connections to the Trump administration and the Republican party to navigate the evolving political and regulatory environment.

According to Steve Lipin, founder of Gladstone Place Partners, the current administration operates on a transactional basis, prompting firms to seek guidance from influential figures like Howard Lutnick, Trump’s commerce secretary.

In response to the changing political landscape, deal advisers are leveraging their networks to establish connections within Trump’s circle. However, there is a delicate balance in finding individuals who are respected within the administration without being perceived as too aligned with the “MAGA” ideology.

The evolution of the mergers and acquisitions industry goes beyond financial advice to include navigating geopolitical complexities such as military conflicts, trade disputes, and political upheavals.

With the Trump administration introducing cultural considerations into regulation, firms are hiring government relations professionals to guide them through the regulatory landscape and engage with lawmakers and officials.

Some firms, like Brunswick Group, have recruited former administration officials from both the Trump and Biden eras to provide strategic insights and communication expertise in this rapidly changing environment.

To address the complexities of operating in Washington and globally, firms are expanding their teams to include experts in geopolitical affairs. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Lazard, and Bank of America have all established specialized units to advise clients on navigating geopolitical risks.

• These teams, comprising former government officials, focus on providing strategic counsel rather than engaging in traditional lobbying activities.

• The need for expertise in understanding and engaging with Washington has prompted firms to invest in building robust teams to address the uncertainties and challenges posed by the current administration’s policies.

In an era marked by shifting diplomatic alliances and unpredictable policies, firms are recognizing the importance of having a deep understanding of geopolitical dynamics to better serve their clients.

“The lack of predictability in the current environment necessitates a strategic approach to engaging with Washington and other geopolitical hotspots,” said Scott Barshay, a prominent deal maker.

— Michael J. de la Merced

HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

Consumer confidence took a nosedive. Sentiment among consumers tanked 11 percent in March, according to a new survey from the University of Michigan released on Friday. The metric has plummeted each month for the last three months, totaling a 22 percent drop since December. Anxiety about inflation is also on the rise.

The Senate voted to avert a shutdown. Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the minority leader, reversed course and allowed the Republican-written funding bill to pass before a midnight deadline on Friday. Some Democrats viewed stopping the bill as a way to counter Trump, but Schumer argued that Democrats would be blamed for a shutdown if they blocked the legislation. The move drew staunch criticism from Democrats, including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Stocks rebounded after a turbulent week. After sliding into a correction on Thursday amid an escalating trade war and mixed inflation report, stocks rallied after threats of a government shutdown appeared to have been averted. The price of gold, a safe haven, reached $3,000 for the first time.

Intel named a new C.E.O. Lip-Bu Tan, a well-known tech investor and executive, will be responsible for reviving the embattled chip-making company, whose share price has fallen 54 percent over the past year.

Women’s sports kicks off a new chapter

Women’s sports have new stars, new money and an increasing value proposition as television audiences fracture — all of which has led to an influx of investors in recent years.

One of the most prominent tests of whether those big bets can translate to blockbuster returns kicked off on Friday with the season opening games of the National Women’s Soccer League.

After a long period of underinvestment, the league has raised money from big institutional investors like Sixth Street and Carlyle and headline names like Natalie Portman, Bob Iger and his wife, Willow Bay, and Kevin Durant.

And it has notched big sponsors. This month, the league announced a flashy deal with Alex Cooper’s Unwell Hydration.

Now it is entering a new chapter: proving to its investors that the business proposition is a bet worth taking.

“We’ve been fighting for a chance and now we have the chance,” Haley Rosen, the founder and C.E.O of Just Women’s sports told DealBook.

“So how do we take advantage of it?”

Institutional investors have treated women’s soccer like a venture capital investment. The bet is, effectively, that the sport has been so neglected that there’s very likely only to be an upside. In 2023, Sixth Street led an ownership group that plans to spend $125 million on a new Bay Area team, with roughly $53 million covering the expansion fee, a huge jump from the $5 million fee paid in 2021 for a team in Kansas City. Boston notched its own $53 million expansion fee months later.

“It’s a question of how high can you go? And in what time frame?” Alex Michael, a managing director at LionTree, said. “We’re pushing valuations hard and fast across sports, women’s sports being an exceptional example of late. However, audience and, ultimately, revenue need to keep up to continue the ascension.”

Television ratings will be a huge test. As with most sports leagues, the biggest driver of revenue for the N.W.S.L. will be its media deal. In 2023, the league struck a four-year $240 million deal with CBS Sports, ESPN, Prime Video and Scripps Sports. That’s about 40 times more than its last television deal but a fraction of the 10-year $2.5 billion deal Major League Soccer struck with Apple.

N.W.S.L.’s media contract expires in 2027. The short time span will allow it to capitalize quickly on any sustained momentum. But it also means the N.W.S.L. will need to demonstrate real growth in television viewership quickly if it wants to sign a more lucrative deal in four years.

“When I came here three years ago, there were not commercial considerations that we needed to take into account,” the N.W.S.L. commissioner, Jessica Berman, said in January, referring to new business pressures. “We didn’t have media partners that were paying us a lot of money who had expectations to drive viewership goals.”

Last year, the 2024 N.W.S.L. Championship averaged 967,900 viewers in prime time on CBS on a Saturday, an 18 percent increase from 2023, but only a 6 percent jump from 2022.

The N.W.S.L. needs its stars to carry the weight. As the last generation of stars retire — including Megan Rapinoe, Alex Morgan, Kelley O’Hara — the N.W.S.L. has made a major effort to spotlight the next generation of stars, including the gold-winning 2024 Olympic team.

The question now is whether new stars, like Trinity Rodman (who is debating playing overseas instead) will capture cultural zeitgeist in a way that can sustain the league.

And the expansion model to prove out. Expansion teams have brought in big revenue and big names. But selling a new team to investors is only one part of the equation — new investors need to prove those investments can generate profit.

Some of these teams may be an easier sell than others. Angel City FC, the Los Angeles team that sold last year for a record-breaking $250 million to Bob Iger and his wife, Willow Bay, had an average stadium attendance of 19,000 last year, or about 2,000 more than fits in all of Brooklyn’s Barclays Center. Other teams, like the Houston Dash, were only averaging around 6,000 spectators a game. Any new teams would need to prove that fans will show up.

”So far, so good, for the N.W.S.L.,” Michael of LionTree said. “But not all teams are created equally.”

Thanks for reading! We’ll see you Monday.

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