ARK Invest Raises 2030 Bitcoin Bull Case Price Target To $2.4 Million
ARK Invest Raises Bitcoin Price Target to $2.4 Million by 2030
ARK Invest has recently revised its long-term outlook for Bitcoin, projecting a bull case price target of approximately $2.4 million by 2030. This updated target represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 72% between December 31, 2024, and December 31, 2030. In comparison, ARK’s base and bear case estimates stand at $1.2 million (CAGR ~53%) and $500,000 (CAGR ~32%), respectively.
According to the report, institutional investment is expected to play a significant role in achieving the bull case scenario, with a projected penetration rate of 6.5% of the $200 trillion global market portfolio ex-gold by 2030. This allocation is nearly double the current share of gold in the market.
Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold,” is gaining recognition for its potential as a nimbler and more transparent store of value. The report predicts that digital gold alone could contribute more than a third to the bull case valuation, assuming Bitcoin captures 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market cap.
Another key driver of the increased price target is the emerging market demand for Bitcoin. ARK believes that Bitcoin’s ability to protect wealth from inflation and devaluation in developing economies could lead to significant capital accrual. This segment is expected to contribute 13.5% to the $2.4 million valuation, assuming a 6% TAM penetration rate of emerging market monetary bases.
In addition to institutional investment and emerging market demand, ARK highlights the growing adoption by nation-state treasuries, corporate cash reserves, and the expanding on-chain financial services ecosystem as factors contributing to the bullish outlook. Even conservative assumptions for on-chain services show a 60% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), driven by innovations like Layer 2 networks and Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC).
Furthermore, ARK conducted a supplemental analysis applying these assumptions to Bitcoin’s “active” supply, which discounts long-held or lost coins. With this liveliness-adjusted supply basis, the bull case price target has been revised from $1.5 million to $2.4 million.
ARK concludes that Bitcoin’s scarcity and lost supply are often overlooked in most valuation models, suggesting that there may be further upside potential beyond the already ambitious forecast.
You can access the full report here.
