Europe’s population is adapting better to cold than to heat, study shows

A recent study conducted by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) has revealed an interesting trend in Europe’s adaptation to extreme temperatures. The research, published in The Lancet Planetary Health and carried out in collaboration with the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), found that Europe has become more resilient to cold temperatures than to heat over the past two decades.

The study analyzed temperature and mortality data from over 800 regions in 35 European countries between 2003 and 2020. The researchers observed a significant decrease in cold-related mortality risk, with a 2% annual reduction in the relative risk of death at the lowest temperatures. While there was also a decrease in the risk of heat-related deaths, the rate of reduction was lower at 1% per year.

To account for regional differences in vulnerability to extreme temperatures, the team introduced a new concept called Extreme-Risk Temperature (ERT). By calculating the temperature at which the risk of death exceeds a certain threshold for each geographical area, the researchers were able to assess adaptations to temperature over time. They found that Europe experienced fewer dangerously cold days (cold-ERT days) each year, while dangerously hot days (heat-ERT days) increased slightly.

Interestingly, the study revealed that regions in Southern Europe, despite their warmer climates, were more sensitive to temperature changes and had a higher risk of associated mortality. This disparity was attributed to socioeconomic factors such as inadequate housing insulation, lower public health expenditure, and limited access to social support for vulnerable populations.

The researchers emphasized the need for region-specific strategies to protect vulnerable populations, as well as the importance of implementing temperature surveillance systems and heat-health action plans across European countries. They also highlighted the combined effects of temperature and air pollution, noting that compound days with high pollution levels were common during extreme temperature events.

As global warming intensifies, the interaction between extreme temperatures and air pollution, particularly ozone pollution, poses a significant health risk. The researchers called for specific strategies to address compound days and mitigate the health impacts of extreme temperatures and pollution.

This study was conducted as part of the EARLY-ADAPT project, which aims to study how populations are adapting to the public health challenges brought about by climate change. The findings shed light on the need for ongoing efforts to improve adaptation measures and protect vulnerable populations in the face of changing climate conditions.