Takeaways from the Wisconsin and Florida elections
The recent election for a state supreme court judgeship in Wisconsin and two special elections in Florida have provided valuable insights for both Democrats and Republicans as they look ahead to upcoming elections. Here are the key takeaways from these elections:
Wisconsin State Supreme Court Race:
A Setback for Trump and Musk:
In a surprising turn of events, conservative candidate Brad Schimel, who had strong financial backing from Elon Musk and an endorsement from President Trump, lost to liberal candidate Susan Crawford by a 10-point margin. This defeat marked a significant blow to Musk and Trump in a battleground state that Trump narrowly won in 2024.
Crawford’s campaign focused on Musk’s involvement in the state, and this victory could set the tone for Democrats heading into future elections, including the 2026 midterms.
Record-breaking Spending:
The Wisconsin State Supreme Court race became the most expensive judicial election in U.S. history, with total spending exceeding $90 million. This influx of money from big-dollar donors on both sides, including Musk, highlights the increasing nationalization and politicization of state judicial races.
Musk’s significant financial contributions to the race did not yield the desired results, leading to questions about the influence of outside interests on local elections.
Impact on Musk’s Future Spending:
The outcome of the Wisconsin race may influence how Elon Musk invests his financial and political resources leading up to the 2026 midterms, especially considering the loss in this pivotal election.
With Democrats energized by Crawford’s win, Republicans face challenges in maintaining their majority in future elections.
High Voter Engagement:
The high turnout in the Wisconsin State Supreme Court race, potentially surpassing 2.4 million voters, indicates strong mobilization among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters. Crawford’s victory ensured the retention of the court’s 4-3 liberal majority, setting the stage for future progressive rulings.
Florida Special Congressional Elections:
Republican Victories with Narrower Margins:
Republicans Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine secured victories in the 1st and 6th Districts in Florida but with reduced margins compared to previous elections. Despite the wins, Democrats outperformed expectations in these deep-red districts, signaling a shift in voter sentiment.
Trump’s Influence Tested:
Both Patronis and Fine benefited from President Trump’s endorsements, but the closer-than-expected races suggest potential vulnerabilities in Trump’s influence, especially in off-cycle elections. Democrats’ strong fundraising efforts and symbolic victories in these districts signal a changing political landscape.
Special Elections Remain a Challenge:
The results of these elections align with historical trends, showing that House special elections rarely result in seat flips. Both parties will need to navigate these challenges as they strategize for future elections.
